Since the announcement of the business cycle indicators and monitoring indicators in 1977, they have been widely used by all fields. In particular, the business cycle indicators underwent five revisions, in 1978, 1987, 2007, 2013, and 2018 respectively; the monitoring indicators underwent eight revisions, in 1978, 1984, 1989, 1995, 2001, 2007, 2013, and 2018 respectively.
As for the 2018 business cycle indicators and monitoring indicators revision operations, in consideration to the changes in domestic economic structure, coupled with the weakening of some component indicators in reflecting business cycle and business cycle indicator revision work regularly in order to accurately and instantly reflect the economic situation. The main processes involved are as follows:
1. Self-administered Research, Analysis, and Review by the National Development Council (NDC)
The 2013 business cycle indicators and monitoring indicators revision operation was first researched, analyzed, and reviewed by the council to examine the performance of the business cycle indicators and monitoring indicators and eliminate constituents that have poor correspondence with business cycle. Then, based on the economic significance, conformity, statistical adequacy, prompt availability, consistency of timing, and smoothness, appropriate components are reselected as replacement.
2. Commissioned Research on Related Issues
In addition to the self-administrated research and analysis, the NDC also commissioned scholars and experts to conduct research targeting specific issues, thereby perfecting component selection and indicator compilation methods and strengthening the accuracy of the business cycle indicators on the determination of economic situations.
3. Invitations to Scholars, Experts, Government Agencies, and Private Academic Institutions for Panel Discussions
After reviewing the business cycle indicators and monitoring indicators, the preliminary revision results were examined by scholars, experts, and government agency representatives invited.
4. Discuss the panel discussions results in the NDC
For the sake of prudence and rigor, NDC proposed the panel discussions results in the NDC committee. The committee decided to trial compilation of corrected results for 6 months on December 14th, 2017.
5. The NDC committee decided new edition indicators for Official Launch and Convergence on August 27th, 2018
After completing the new edition of the business cycle indicators and monitoring indicators, internal trial compilation was first conducted for 6 months. The trial compilation results show good performance after the business cycle indicators and monitoring indicators were revised. They also accurately reflect economic situations. Hence, NDC proposed the trial compilation results in the NDC committee on August 16th, 2018. The NDC committee decided new edition of the business cycle indicators and monitoring indicators were officially launched for convergence on August 27th, 2018.