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Taiwan Business Indicators in October 2005

In October 2005, Taiwan's business indicators continued to display upturns on the real side of the economy. Among the indicators compiled by the Cabinet's Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD), the leading index fell 0.8%, while the coincident index rose 0.8%, respectively, from the previous month. The monitoring indicators flashed "green" for the third consecutive month in October, reflecting steady expansion of the economy.

1. Leading Indicators. The leading index stood at 107.9 (2001=100), decreasing 0.8% from September. Among the seven indicators that make up the composite index, only customs-cleared exports* made positive contribution. The components that made negative contribution were floor area of building construction permits, average work hours in the manufacturing sector , money supply M1B*, stock prices*, wholesale price change from six months earlier and manufacturers' new orders*.
(Note: components marked with an asterisk indicate year-on-year change rate)

2. Coincident Indicators. The coincident index stood at 114.1 (2001=100), increasing 0.8% from September, based on revised data. Among the six indicators that make up the composite index, three that made positive contribution were bank clearings*, industrial production*, and manufacturing production*. Two that made negative contribution were manufacturing sales and average monthly wage of manufacturing workers*. Domestic freight was not included due to data unavailability.

3. The Monitoring Indicators. The total score recorded 23 in October, remaining at the same level of September. Among the nine indicators, six showed changes in their individual light signals, three with gains and three with loss. The improvement was recorded in bank clearings and remittances, customs-cleared exports and industrial production. The fall was recorded in M1B money supply, stock prices and manufacturing inventory. The light signals for direct and indirect finance, manufacturing new orders and non-agricultural employment remained unchanged.

4. Business Expectations. A survey of manufacturers for October indicated that 10% of manufacturing businesses expected the economy to be better over the next three months, down from the revised 12% a month earlier, while another 24% held a negative view, up from the revised 22% a month earlier; and 66% of the manufacturers surveyed expected the economy's performance to remain unchanged, the same as September survey.

The next release is scheduled for December 27, 2005 


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    1. Taiwan Business Indicators in October 2005
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