In September 2007, Taiwan's business cyclical indicators displayed mixed signs of economic condition. Among the indicators compiled by the Cabinet's Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD), the leading index decreased 0.1% from the previous month, while the coincident index increased 0.1%. The monitoring indicators signaled "green" for the fourth consecutive month. Though the recent subprime market turmoil has had very limited direct impact on Taiwan's financial markets, the tightening effect on the global economy dampens the prospects for the overall economy.
- Leading Indicators: The composite leading index stood at 146.7, slightly down by 0.1% from August. Its annualized six-month rate of change shows a downward trend since June. Among the seven indicators making up the composite index, only the index of export orders made positive contribution. Six that made negative contributions were index of producer's inventory, monetary aggregates M1B*, building permits, stock prices, SEMI book-to-bill ratio, and average monthly overtime hours in industry and services.
(Note: components marked with an asterisk in real terms.)
- Coincident Indicators: The coincident index stood at 150.7, up by 0.1% from August. Its trend-adjusted series fell for the first time since February. Among the seven indicators making up the composite index, three that made positive contributions were industrial production, customs-cleared exports*, and manufacturing sales*. Four that made negative contributions were electric power consumption, machineries and electrical equipments imports*, sales index of wholesale, retail and food services, and nonagricultural employment.
- The Monitoring Indicators: September's total score increased one point to 31, flashing the "green" signal for the fourth consecutive month. Among the components, customs exports lost one point and saw its light changing from "yellow-red" to "green," while manufacturing sales and wholesale, retail and food services sales each gained one point, with both individual light signals turning from "green" to "yellow-red."
T~~ The next release is scheduled for November 27, 2007 ~~T