Taiwan Business Indicators in October 2007
Press Release
Council for Economic Planning and Development
November 27, 2007
In October 2007, Taiwan’s business cyclical indicators displayed upbeat signs of the economy. Among the indicators compiled by the Cabinet’s Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD), the leading index and coincident index increased the 0.9% and 0.5%, respectively, from the previous month. The monitoring indicators signaled "yellow-red" for the second consecutive month, suggesting a transition to a more optimistic condition. The latest official forecast for the economy sees higher growth for 2007 and 2008 than previous forecasts. However, the possible tightening effect from the recent subprime market turmoil on the overall economy's prospects is still on the watch list.
1. Leading Indicators: The composite leading index stood at 149.2, increasing by 0.9% from September. Its annualized six-month rate of change was also higher than the previous month. Among the seven indicators making up the composite index, five that made positive contributions were index of producer's inventory, stock prices, SEMI book-to-bill ratio, average monthly overtime hours in industry and services, and building permits. Two that made negative contributions were the index of export orders and monetary aggregates M1B*.
(Note: components marked with an asterisk indicate real terms)
2. Coincident Indicators: The coincident index stood at 152.3, up by 0.5% from September. Its trend-adjusted series increased for the eighth consecutive month. Among the seven indicators making up the composite index, five that made positive contributions were manufacturing sales*, sales index of wholesale, retail and food services, electric power consumption, industrial production, and customs-cleared exports*. Two that made negative contributions were imports* of machineries and electrical equipments and nonagricultural employment.
3. The Monitoring Indicators: The total score in September was adjusted upward by one point to 32, following the revision of manufacturing sales. The light signal for September was revised from "green" to "yellow-red". October's total score remained at 32, flashing the "yellow-red" signal. Among the components, customs exports gained one point and changed its individual light from "green" to "yellow-red," while money supply M1B lost one point and changed its light from "green" to "yellow-blue."
T~~ The next release is scheduled for December 27, 2007 ~~T