Taiwan Business Indicators in November 2007
Press Release
Council for Economic Planning and Development
December 27, 2007
In November 2007, Taiwan’s business cyclical indicators displayed mixed signals of the economy. Among the indicators compiled by the Cabinet’s Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD), the leading index increased 0.1% from the previous month, while coincident index remained at the same level as in October. The light of the monitoring indicators returned "green" after a two-month run on "yellow-red," reflecting continued steady expansion of the economy. The inflationary pressure from international oil and commodity markets and the financial turbulence following the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis have added downside risks to the prospects for the domestic economy.
1. Leading Indicators: The composite leading index stood at 148.2, increasing marginally by 0.1% from October. Its annualized six-month rate of change was lower than the previous month. Among the seven indicators making up the composite index, three that made positive contributions were SEMI book-to-bill ratio, building permits, and average monthly overtime hours in industry and services. Four that made negative contributions were the index of export orders, monetary aggregates M1B*, stock prices, and index of producer's inventory.
(Note: components marked with an asterisk indicate real terms)
2. Coincident Indicators: The coincident index stood at 152.3 remained at the same level as in October, with its trend-adjusted series lowering from the previous month. Among the seven indicators making up the composite index, two that made positive contributions were manufacturing sales* and industrial production. Five that made negative contributions were imports* of machineries and electrical equipments, sales index of wholesale, retail and food services, customs-cleared exports*, electric power consumption, and nonagricultural employment.
3. The Monitoring Indicators: November’s total score was down by 3 points to 29, and changed the light signal from "yellow-red" to "green". Among the components, stock prices, imports of machineries and electrical equipments, wholesale, retail and food services each lost one point and changed their individual lights. Money supply M1B, direct and indirect finance, industrial production, non-agricultural employment, customs-cleared exports, and manufacturing sales remained unchanged.
T~~ The next release is scheduled for January 28, 2008 ~~T