Taiwan Business Indicators in February 2008
Press Release
Council for Economic Planning and Development
March 27, 2008
In February 2008, Taiwan’s business cyclical indicators showed signs of deceleration. Among the indicators compiled by the Cabinet’s Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD), the six-month rate of change of leading index decreased 1 point and the trend-adjusted coincident index decreased 0.2% from the previous month. The monitoring indicators signaled "green" for the fourth consecutive month. The inflationary pressure from international oil and commodity markets and the financial turbulence following the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis have added downside risks to the prospects for the domestic economy.
1. Leading Indicators: The composite leading index stood at 148.9, decreasing by 0.3% from January. Its annualized six-month rate of change decreased by one point to 0.6%. Among the seven indicators making up the composite index, SEMI book-to-bill ratio has positive cyclical movements from previous month. The index of producer's inventory, building permits, the index of export orders, real monetary aggregates M1B*, Stock price index, and average monthly overtime hours in industry and services have negative cyclical movements from previous month.
(Note: components marked with an asterisk indicate real terms)
2. Coincident Indicators: The coincident index stood at 155.7, up by 0.3% from January. Its trend-adjusted series decreased by 0.2% to 100.8, fell for the first time since November 2007. Among the seven indicators making up the composite index, electric power consumption, customs-cleared exports*, and nonagricultural employment have positive cyclical movements from previous month. Sales index of wholesale, retail and food services, imports* of machineries and electrical equipments, manufacturing sales*, and index of industrial production have negative cyclical movements from previous month.
3. The Monitoring Indicators: The total score in January 2008 was adjusted upward by two points to 29, following the revision of wholesale, retail and food services sales. February’s total score was down by two points to 27, flashing the "green" signal for the fourth consecutive month. Among the components, Customs-cleared exports gained one point and saw its light changing from " yellow- red " to " red ", while direct and indirect finance lost one point and changed its individual light from " yellow- blue " to " blue ". Imports of machineries and electrical equipments, Wholesale, retail and food services sales each lost one point, with both individual lights turning from " green " to " yellow- blue ".
T~~ The next release is scheduled for April 28, 2008 ~~T