Taiwan Business Indicators in March 2008
Press Release
Council for Economic Planning and Development
April 28, 2008
In March 2008, Taiwan’s business cyclical indicators showed signs of deceleration. Among the indicators compiled by the Cabinet’s Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD), the six-month rate of change of leading index decreased 0.4 point and the trend-adjusted coincident index decreased 0.3% from the previous month. The monitoring indicators signaled "green" for the fifth consecutive month. The inflationary pressure from international oil and commodity markets and the financial turbulence following the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis have added downside risks to the prospects for the domestic economy.
1. Leading Indicators: The composite leading index stood at 149.1, decreasing by 0.1% from February. Its annualized six-month rate of change decreased by 0.4 point to 0.2%, which displayed a downtrend from September 2007. Among the seven indicators making up the composite index, Stock price index, real monetary aggregates M1B*, and average monthly overtime hours in industry and services had positive cyclical movements from previous month. Building permits, the index of export orders, SEMI book-to-bill ratio, and the index of producer's inventory had negative cyclical movements from previous month.
(Note: components marked with an asterisk indicate real terms)
2. Coincident Indicators: The coincident index stood at 157.2, up by 0.1% from February. Its trend-adjusted series decreased by 0.3% to 101.1. Among the seven indicators making up the composite index, manufacturing sales* and customs-cleared exports* have positive cyclical movements from previous month. Sales index of wholesale, retail and food services, electric power consumption, imports* of machineries and electrical equipments, index of industrial production, and nonagricultural employment have negative cyclical movements from previous month.
3. The Monitoring Indicators: The total score in March remained 27 points, the same as the previous month. Among the nine components, four showed changes in their individual light signals, two with gains and two with loss. The improvement was recorded in direct and indirect finance, imports of machineries and electrical equipments. The fall was recorded in nonagricultural employment, Customs-cleared exports. The light signals for money supply M1B, stock prices, industrial production, manufacturing sales and wholesale, retail and food services remained unchanged.
T~~ The next release is scheduled for May 27, 2008 ~~T