Taiwan Business Indicators in May 2008
Press Release
Council for Economic Planning and Development
June 27, 2008
In May 2008, Taiwan’s business cyclical indicators displayed signs of a slowdown of the economy. Among the indicators compiled by the Cabinet’s Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD), the annualized six-month rate of change of leading index decreased 0.2 point and the trend-adjusted coincident index decreased 0.5% from the previous month. The overall monitoring indicator flashed "yellow-blue" in May, for the first time after six consecutive months of "green", reflecting a downside risk in Taiwan’s economic growth.
1. Leading Indicators: The composite leading index stood at 106.9, increasing by 0.1% from April. Its annualized six-month rate of change decreased by 0.2 point to 0.7%, which displayed a downtrend since November 2007. Among the seven indicators making up the composite index, only stock price index had positive cyclical movement from previous month. The index of export orders, SEMI book-to-bill ratio, building permits, average monthly overtime hours in industry and services, the index of producer's inventory, and real monetary aggregates M1B* had negative cyclical movements from previous month.
(Note: components marked with an asterisk indicate real terms)
2. Coincident Indicators: The coincident index stood at 109.1, remained at the same level as in April. Its trend-adjusted series decreased by 0.5% to 98.7. Among the seven indicators making up the composite index, only sales index of wholesale, retail and food services had positive cyclical movement from previous month. Imports* of machineries and electrical equipments, manufacturing sales*, electric power consumption, index of industrial production, customs-cleared exports*, and nonagricultural employment had negative cyclical movements from previous month.
3. The Monitoring Indicators: The total score in May was down by 6 points to 21, changing the overall light signal from "green" to "yellow-blue". Among the nine components, five showed loss in their individual light signals. Industrial production lost 2 points, and stock price index, imports of machineries and electrical equipments, manufacturing sales, sales index of wholesale, retail and food services lost 1 point, respectively. The light signals for money supply M1B, direct and indirect finance, nonagricultural employment, and customs-cleared exports remained unchanged.
T~~ The next release is scheduled for July 28, 2008 ~~T