Taiwan Business Indicators in June 2008
Press Release
Council for Economic Planning and Development
July 28, 2008
In June 2008, Taiwan’s business cyclical indicators displayed signs of slowdown in the economy. Among the indicators compiled by the Cabinet’s Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD), the annualized six-month rate of change of leading index decreased 0.1 point and the trend-adjusted coincident index decreased 0.5% from the previous month. The overall monitoring indicator flashed "yellow-blue" in June, reflecting a downside risk in Taiwan’s economic growth.
1. Leading Indicators: The composite leading index stood at 106.6, remained at the same level as in May. Its annualized six-month rate of change decreased by 0.1 point to 0.1%, which displayed a downtrend since November 2007. Among the seven indicators making up the composite index, SEMI book-to-bill ratio and building permits had positive cyclical movement from previous month. Real monetary aggregates M1B*, stock price index, the index of export orders, the index of producer's inventory, and average monthly overtime hours in industry and services had negative cyclical movements from previous month.
(Note: components marked with an asterisk indicate real terms)
2. Coincident Indicators: The coincident index stood at 108.9, down by 0.1% from May. Its trend-adjusted series decreased by 0.5% to 98.3. Among the seven indicators making up the composite index, only electric power consumption had positive cyclical movement from previous month. Sales index of wholesale, retail and food services, manufacturing sales*, imports* of machineries and electrical equipments, index of industrial production, customs-cleared exports*, and nonagricultural employment had negative cyclical movements from previous month.
3. The Monitoring Indicators: The total score of the monitoring indicators in May was adjusted upward by one point to 22, following the revision of manufacturing sales. In June, the score fell by two points to 20, flashing the second "yellow-blue" signal. Among the nine components, stock price index and sales index of wholesale, retail and food services lost one point and changed their individual light. The light signals for money supply M1B, direct and indirect finance, industrial production, nonagricultural employment, customs-cleared exports, imports of machineries, electrical equipments, and manufacturing sales remained unchanged.
T~~ The next release is scheduled for August 27, 2008 ~~T