Taiwan Business Indicators in July 2008
Press Release
Council for Economic Planning and Development
August 27, 2008
In July 2008, Taiwan’s business cyclical indicators showed significant signs that the economy is facing the risk of slowdown. Among the indicators compiled by the Cabinet’s Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD), the annualized six-month rate of change of leading index decreased 1.2 point and the trend-adjusted coincident index decreased 1.2% from the previous month. The overall monitoring indicator flashed the first "blue" in 20 months since December 2006, displaying some signs of weakness in Taiwan’s economic situation.
1. Leading Indicators: The composite leading index stood at 107.4, down by 0.6% from June. Its annualized six-month rate of change decreased by 1.2 point to -1.8%, which displayed a downtrend since November 2007. The decreasing leading index largely came from the negative cyclical movements in stock price index, index of export orders, and real monetary aggregates M1B*.
(Note: components marked with an asterisk indicate real terms)
2. Coincident Indicators: The coincident index stood at 109.6, down by 0.7% from June. Its trend-adjusted series decreased by 1.2% to 96.7, for the fifth straight month in July. All the coincident indicators contributed negatively to the index, led by large decline in sales index of wholesale, retail and food services, electric power consumption, manufacturing sales*, and index of industrial production.
3. The total score in July was down by 5 points to 15, changing the overall light signal from "yellow-blue" to "blue". Among the nine components, four showed loss in their individual light signals. Industrial production lost 2 points, and stock price index, customs-cleared exports, manufacturing sales lost 1 point, respectively. The light signals for money supply M1B, direct and indirect finance, nonagricultural employment, imports of machineries, electrical equipments and sales index of wholesale, retail and food services remained unchanged.
T~~ The next release is scheduled for September 26, 2008 ~~T