Taiwan Business Indicators in August 2008
Press Release
Council for Economic Planning and Development
September 26, 2008
In August 2008, Taiwan’s business cyclical indicators showed some signs that the economy is facing the risk of slowdown. Among the indicators compiled by the Cabinet’s Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD), the leading index decreased 0.7 point, with annualized six-month rate of change decelerating for the tenth consecutive month. The trend-adjusted coincident index also decreased 1.3% from the previous month, with sliding for the sixth consecutive month. The monitoring indicator changed the overall light signal from “blue” to “yellow-blue”, displaying that economic activity is still weak.
1. Leading Indicators: The composite leading index stood at 107.5, down by 0.3% from July. Its annualized six-month rate of change decreased by 0.7 point to -1.8%, which displayed a downtrend since November 2007. The decreasing leading index largely came from the negative cyclical movements in index of producer's Inventory, stock price index, and index of export orders.
(Note: components marked with an asterisk indicate real terms)
2. Coincident Indicators: The coincident index stood at 109.3, down by 0.9% from July. Its trend-adjusted series decreased by 1.3% to 96.1, for the sixth straight month in August. Most of the coincident indicators contributed negatively to the index, led by large decline in electric power consumption, manufacturing sales*, and sales index of wholesale, retail and food services.
3. The total score in July was adjusted to 16 from 15, following a upward revision in industrial production index. The total score in August increased 3 points to 19, changing the overall light signal from "blue" to "yellow-blue". Among the nine components, stock price index, industrial production index and customs-cleared exports gained 1 point respectively, and changed their individual light signals. The light signals for money supply M1B, direct and indirect finance, nonagricultural employment, imports of machineries, electrical equipments, manufacturing sales and sales index of wholesale, retail and food services remained unchanged.
T~~ The next release is scheduled for October 27, 2008 ~~T