Taiwan Business Indicators in September 2008
Press Release
Council for Economic Planning and Development
October 27, 2008
In September 2008, Taiwan’s business cyclical indicators showed some signs that the economy is facing the risk of slowdown. Among the indicators compiled by the Cabinet’s Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD), the leading index decreased 0.4 point, with annualized six-month rate of change decelerating for 11th consecutive month. The trend-adjusted coincident index also decreased 1.2% from the previous month, with sliding for 7th consecutive month. The monitoring indicator changed the overall light signal from “yellow-blue” to “blue”, displaying that economic activity is sluggish.
1. Leading Indicators: The composite leading index stood at 106.4, down by 0.3% from August. Its annualized six-month rate of change decreased by 0.4 point to -3.0%, which displayed a downtrend since November 2007. The decreasing leading index largely came from the negative cyclical movements in stock price index, index of export orders, and SEMI book-to-bill ratio.
(Note: components marked with an asterisk indicate real terms)
2. Coincident Indicators: The coincident index stood at 109.0, down by 0.7% from August. Its trend-adjusted series decreased by 1.2% to 97.1, for the seventh straight month in September. All coincident indicators contributed negatively to the index, led by large decline in industrial production index, manufacturing sales*, and customs-cleared exports*.
3. The total score in August was adjusted to 18 from 19, following a downward revision in manufacturing sales. The total score in September decreased 6 points to 12, changing the overall light signal from "yellow-blue" to " blue". Among the nine components, industrial production index and customs-cleared exports lost 2 points respectively, stock price index, nonagricultural employment and manufacturing sales each lost one point and changed their individual lights. The light signals for money supply M1B, direct and indirect finance, and sales index of wholesale, retail and food services remained unchanged.
T~~ The next release is scheduled for November 27, 2008 ~~T