National Development Council

Taiwan Business Indicators in June 2018

Taiwan Business Indicators in June 2018

In June 2018, the overall monitoring indicator flashed “green” to the “yellow-blue" signal. The total score decreased by seven points to 22. The trend-adjusted leading index and the coincident index decreased from the previous month. The government will be closely monitoring the economic situation.

1. The Monitoring Indicators: The total score in June 2018 decreased by seven points to 22, flashing the “yellow-blue” signal for the first month. Among the nine components, monetary aggregates M1B, the industrial production index, and the index of producer’s shipment for manufacturing each lost one point to change its individual light from “green” to “yellow-blue”, the customs-cleared exports and the TIER manufacturing sector composite indicator each lost one point to change its individual light from “yellow-red” to “green”. While sales of trade and food services loss two points to change its individual light from “yellow-red” to “yellow-blue”. The light signal from the rest of three components remained unchanged.  
2. Leading Indicators: With revised data, the trend-adjusted leading index stood at 99.88, down by 0.34% from last month. Among the seven indicators making up the trend-adjusted index, real monetary aggregates M1B, and the TIER manufacturing sector composite indicator had positive cyclical movements from the previous month, while the index of export orders, real imports of semiconductor equipment, net accession rate of employees on payrolls of industry and services, building permits, and TAIEX average closing price had negative cyclical movements.
3. Coincident Indicators: With revised data, the trend-adjusted coincident index stood at 100.02, down by 0.43% from last month. Among the seven indicators making up the trend-adjusted index, sales of trade and food services had positive cyclical movement, while real machineries and electrical equipments imports, real customs-cleared exports, the industrial production index, electric power consumption, nonagricultural employments, and the index of producer’s shipment for manufacturing had negative cyclical movements.  
4. Lagging Indicators: With revised data, the trend-adjusted lagging index stood at 99.95, down by 0.27% from last month. Among six indicators making up the trend-adjusted index, loans and investments of monetary financial institutions, the inventories to sales ratio for manufacturing, and the interbank overnight call-loan rate had positive cyclical movements, while the manufacturing unit output labor cost index, employees on payrolls in industry and services, and the unemployment rate (inverted) had negative cyclical movements.

~~ Next publication date: August 27 2018 ~~