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Taiwan Business Indicators in September 2015

Press Release

National Development Council (NDC)

October 27, 2015

In September 2015, Taiwan Business Indicators indicated that the economy has entered a phase characterized by significant downside risks and fragility. Among the indicators compiled by the National Development Council (NDC), the trend-adjusted leading index decreased by 0.52%, the trend-adjusted coincident index decreased by 0.76% from the previous month, and the overall monitoring indicator flashed the " blue" signal.

  1. The Monitoring Indicators: The total score in September remained at 14, flashing the “blue” signal for the fourth month. Among the nine components, the monetary aggregates M1B gained one point to change its individual light form “yellow-blue” to “green”, while the imports of machineries and electrical equipments lost one point to change its individual light form “green” to “yellow-blue”. The light signal for the rest of seven components remained unchanged.
  2. Leading Indicators: With revised data, the trend-adjusted leading index stood at 97.07, down by 0.52% from August 2015. Among the seven indicators making up the trend-adjusted index, SEMI book-to-bill ratio and real monetary aggregates M1B had positive cyclical movements from the previous month, while TAIEX average closing price, the TIER manufacturing sector composite indicator, the index of export orders, building permits, and net accession rate of employees on payrolls of industry and services had negative cyclical movements.
  3. Coincident Indicators: With revised data, the trend-adjusted coincident index stood at 96.61, down by 0.76% from August 2015. Among the seven indicators making up the trend-adjusted index, electric power consumption, the industrial production index, the index of producer’s shipment for manufacturing, sales of trade and food services, real machineries and electrical equipments imports, nonagricultural employment, and real customs-cleared exports had negative cyclical movements.
  4. Lagging Indicators: With revised data, the trend-adjusted lagging index stood at 101.00, down by 0.06% from August 2015. Among the six indicators making up the trend-adjusted index, the inventories to sales ratio for manufacturing and loans and investments of monetary financial institutions had positive cyclical movements from the previous month, while the unemployment rate (inverted), regular employees on payrolls in industry and services, the manufacturing unit output labor cost index, and the interbank overnight call-loan rate had negative cyclical movement.

 

~~ The next release is scheduled for November 27 2015 ~~


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    1. Taiwan Business Indicators in September 2015
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