Taiwan Business Indicators in September 2011
Press Release
Council for Economic Planning and Development
October 27, 2011
In September 2011, Taiwan Business Indicators indicated that the economy has been on the downgrade and become more uncertain. Among the indicators compiled by the Cabinet’s Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD), the annualized six-month rate of change of leading index decreased by 0.9 points, the trend-adjusted coincident index decreased by 1.7% from the previous month, and the overall monitoring indicator flashed the "yellow-blue" signal for the second consecutive month.
1. Leading Indicators: With revised data, the composite leading index stood at 126.8, down by 0.3% from August. Its annualized six-month rate of change decreased to -0.7%. All seven indicators making up the trend-adjusted index had negative cyclical movements from previous month, which were index of export orders, stock price index, SEMI book-to-bill ratio, average monthly overtime in industry and services, real monetary aggregates M1B, building permits, and index of producer's inventory for manufacturing (inverted).
2. Coincident Indicators: With revised data, the coincident index stood at 130.3, down by 0.7% from August. Its trend-adjusted index decreased by 1.7% to 96.1. Among the seven indicators making up the trend-adjusted index, nonagricultural employment had positive cyclical movements from previous month. The industrial production index, real machineries and electrical equipments imports, real customs-cleared exports, electric power consumption, index of producer’s shipment for manufacturing, and the sales index of wholesale, retail and food services had negative cyclical movements from previous month.
3. Lagging Indicators: With revised data, the lagging index stood at 148.7, up by 2.0% from August. Its trend-adjusted index rose by 1.0% to 109.7. Among the six indicators making up the trend-adjusted index, the manufacturing unit output labor cost index, inventories to sales ratio for manufacturing, loans and investments of major financial institutions, interbank overnight call-loan rate had positive cyclical movements from previous month. Regular employees on payrolls in industry and services, unemployment rate (inverted) had negative cyclical movements from previous month.
4. The Monitoring Indicators: The total score in September increased 1 point to 21. The overall light signal flashed the "yellow- blue" signal for the second consecutive month. Among the nine components, stock price index lost one point and changed its individual light signal from " green" to "yellow- blue", nonagricultural employment gained one point and changed its individual light signal from "green" to "yellow-red", manufacturing sales gained one point and changed its individual light signal from "blue" to "yellow-blue". The light signals for the rest of six components remained unchanged.
~~ The next release is scheduled for November 28 2011 ~~