Taiwan Business Indicators in October 2011
Press Release
Council for Economic Planning and Development
November 28, 2011
In October 2011, Taiwan Business Indicators indicated that the economy has been on the downgrade and become more uncertain. Among the indicators compiled by the Cabinet’s Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD), the annualized six-month rate of change of leading index decreased by 0.5 points, the trend-adjusted coincident index decreased by 1.5% from the previous month, and the overall monitoring indicator flashed the "yellow-blue" signal for the third consecutive month.
1. Leading Indicators: With revised data, the composite leading index stood at 126.8, down by 0.2% from September. Its annualized six-month rate of change decreased by 0.5 points to -0.7%. Among the seven indicators making up the trend-adjusted index, index of producer's inventory for manufacturing (inverted) had positive cyclical movements from previous month. Average monthly overtime in industry and services, stock price index, SEMI book-to-bill ratio, index of export orders, building permits, and real monetary aggregates M1B had negative cyclical movements from previous month.
2. Coincident Indicators: With revised data, the coincident index stood at 129.2, down by 0.6% from September. Its trend-adjusted index decreased by 1.5% to 95.3. All seven indicators making up the trend-adjusted index had negative cyclical movements from previous month, which were index of real machineries and electrical equipments imports, the industrial production index, electric power consumption, the sales index of wholesale, retail and food services, index of producer’s shipment for manufacturing, real customs-cleared exports and nonagricultural employment.
3. Lagging Indicators: With revised data, the lagging index stood at 146.1, up by 1.3% from September. Its trend-adjusted index rose by 0.4% to 107.8. Among the six indicators making up the trend-adjusted index, the manufacturing unit output labor cost index, loans and investments of major financial institutions, inventories to sales ratio for manufacturing, interbank overnight call-loan rate had positive cyclical movements from previous month. Regular employees on payrolls in industry and services, unemployment rate (inverted) had negative cyclical movements from previous month.
4. The Monitoring Indicators: The total score in October was down by 1 point to 20. The overall light signal flashed the "yellow- blue" signal for the third consecutive month. Among the nine components, customs-cleared exports gained two points and changed its individual light signal from "blue" to "green", manufacturing sales gained one point and changed its individual light signal from "yellow-blue" to "green". Monetary aggregates M1B, industrial production index, nonagricultural employment, sales index of wholesale, retail and food services each lost one point and changed their individual light signals. The light signals for the rest of three components remained unchanged.
~~ The next release is scheduled for December 27 2011 ~~