Taiwan Business Indicators in February 2012
Press Release
Council for Economic Planning and Development
March 27, 2012
In February 2012, although Taiwan Business Indicators still indicated that the economy has many downside risks, the pace of decline in some components moderated. Among the indicators compiled by the Cabinet’s Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD), the annualized six-month rate of change of leading index increased by 1.3 points, the trend-adjusted coincident index decreased by 1.3% from the previous month, and the overall monitoring indicator flashed the "blue" signal. The results showed Taiwan’s economy brightens slightly.
1. Leading Indicators: With revised data, the composite leading index stood at 130.1, up by 0.9% from January 2012. Its annualized six-month rate of change increased by 1.3 points to 5.5%. Among the seven indicators making up the trend-adjusted index, SEMI book-to-bill ratio, index of producer's inventory for manufacturing (inverted), index of export orders, and stock price index had positive cyclical movements from previous month. Building permits, real monetary aggregates M1B, and average monthly overtime in industry and services had negative cyclical movements from previous month.
2. Coincident Indicators: With revised data, the coincident index stood at 125.9, down by 0.7% from January 2012. Its trend-adjusted index decreased by 1.3% to 93.6. All seven indicators making up the trend-adjusted index had negative cyclical movements from previous month, which were electric power consumption, the industrial production index, real machineries and electrical equipments imports, index of producer’s shipment for manufacturing, real customs-cleared exports, the sales index of wholesale, retail and food services, and nonagricultural employment.
3. Lagging Indicators: With revised data, the lagging index stood at 140.4, up by 0.2% from January 2012. Its trend-adjusted index decreased by 0.5% to 104.3. Among the six indicators making up the trend-adjusted index, the interbank overnight call-loan rate had positive cyclical movement from previous month. The manufacturing unit output labor cost index, regular employees on payrolls in industry and services, loans and investments of monetary financial institutions, inventories to sales ratio for manufacturing, unemployment rate (inverted) had negative cyclical movements from previous month.
4. The Monitoring Indicators: The total score in February increased 2 points to 15, flashing the "blue" signal for the fourth consecutive month. Among the nine components, monetary aggregates M1B, the sales index of wholesale, retail and food services, each gained one point and changed their individual light signals from "blue" to "yellow-blue". The light signals for the rest of seven components remained unchanged.
~~ The next release is scheduled for April 27 2012 ~~