Taiwan Business Indicators in March 2012
Press Release
Council for Economic Planning and Development
April 27, 2012
In March 2012, although Taiwan Business Indicators still indicated that the economy has many downside risks, the pace of decline in some components moderated. Among the indicators compiled by the Cabinet’s Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD), the annualized six-month rate of change of leading index increased by 1.8 points, the trend-adjusted coincident index decreased by 0.6% from the previous month, and the overall monitoring indicator flashed the "blue" signal. The results showed Taiwan’s economy brightens slightly.
1. Leading Indicators: With revised data, the composite leading index stood at 132.1, up by 1.2% from February 2012. Its annualized six-month rate of change increased by 1.8 points to 8.4%. Among the seven indicators making up the trend-adjusted index, SEMI book-to-bill ratio, index of producer's inventory for manufacturing (inverted), stock price index, and index of export orders had positive cyclical movements from previous month. Real monetary aggregates M1B, average monthly overtime in industry and services, and building permits had negative cyclical movements from previous month.
2. Coincident Indicators: With revised data, the coincident index stood at 127.5, up by 0.1% from February 2012. Its trend-adjusted index decreased by 0.6% to 94.7. Among the seven indicators making up the trend-adjusted index, the sales index of wholesale, retail and food services had positive cyclical movements from previous month. Index of producer’s shipment for manufacturing, electric power consumption, real machineries and electrical equipments imports, real customs-cleared exports, the industrial production index, and nonagricultural employment had negative cyclical movements from previous month.
3. Lagging Indicators: With revised data, the lagging index stood at 139.2, up by 0.1% from February 2012. Its trend-adjusted index decreased by 0.5% to 103.4. Among the six indicators making up the trend-adjusted index, the interbank overnight call-loan rate had positive cyclical movement from previous month. The inventories to sales ratio for manufacturing, manufacturing unit output labor cost index, regular employees on payrolls in industry and services, unemployment rate (inverted), loans and investments of monetary financial institutions had negative cyclical movements from previous month.
4. The Monitoring Indicators: The total score in March was down by 1 point to 14, flashing the "blue" signal for the fifth consecutive month. Among the nine components, the sales index of wholesale, retail and food services lost one point and changed its individual light signal from "yellow-blue" to "blue". The light signals for the rest of eight components remained unchanged.
~~ The next release is scheduled for May 28 2012 ~~