Press Release
National Development Council (NDC)
August 27, 2015
In July 2015, Taiwan Business Indicators indicated that the economy has entered a phase characterized by significant downside risks and fragility. Among the indicators compiled by the National Development Council (NDC), the trend-adjusted leading index decreased by 0.45%, the trend-adjusted coincident index decreased by 0.68% from the previous month, and the overall monitoring indicator flashed the " blue" signal.
- The Monitoring Indicators: The total score in July decreased by two points to 14, flashing the “blue” signal for the second month. Among the nine components, the monetary aggregates M1B and the TAIEX average closing price each lost one point to change its individual light form “green” to “yellow-blue”. The light signal for the rest of seven components remained unchanged.
- Leading Indicators: With revised data, the trend-adjusted leading index stood at 97.66, down by 0.45% from June 2015. Among the seven indicators making up the trend-adjusted index, building permits had positive cyclical movement from the previous month, while the index of export orders, the TIER manufacturing sector composite indicator, TAIEX average closing price, net accession rate of employees on payrolls of industry and services, SEMI book-to-bill ratio, and real monetary aggregates M1B had negative cyclical movements.
- Coincident Indicators: With revised data, the trend-adjusted coincident index stood at 97.35, down by 0.68% from June 2015. Among the seven indicators making up the trend-adjusted index, electric power consumption had positive cyclical movement from the previous month, while the industrial production index, the index of producer’s shipment for manufacturing, sales of trade and food services, real customs-cleared exports, nonagricultural employment, and real machineries and electrical equipments imports had negative cyclical movements.
- Lagging Indicators: With revised data, the trend-adjusted lagging index stood at 101.37, up by 0.08% from June 2015. Among the six indicators making up the trend-adjusted index, the inventories to sales ratio for manufacturing and the manufacturing unit output labor cost index had positive cyclical movements from the previous month, while loans and investments of monetary financial institutions, the unemployment rate (inverted), regular employees on payrolls in industry and services, and the interbank overnight call-loan rate had negative cyclical movement.
~~ The next release is scheduled for September 29 2015 ~~